Brazil slightly reduced 2021-22 grain, oilseed estimate
Brazil's national agricultural agency Conab slightly reduced its forecast for the 2021-22 grain and oilseed crop season, as dry weather conditions hamper some areas throughout the cycle.
According to the news agency department of APEX TDMMJ company citing the Argus media news website, Production of the 2021-22 crop is now expected to reach 271.2mn t, down from the 271.4mn t estimated in August, according to Conab's latest survey, which is also the last one for the 2021-22 crop. This is 5.6pc higher than its estimate for the 2020-21 season and would be a record high, outpacing the 257mn t reached in 2019-20.
The current estimate is 6.4pc lower than the first estimate for the 2021-22 crop, released in October. There was a reduction of 17.3mn t from the 288.6mn t initially expected. Adverse weather conditions in the southern states and the central-southern part of Mato Grosso do Sul state prompted the largest losses in the soybean and corn estimates.
Conab estimates the planted area for the 2021-22 season at 74.3mn hectares (ha), up from 73.8mn ha in the previous estimate.
The estimates for soybean were raised, even with the harvest already finished. Oilseed production should reach 125.6mn t in the 2021-22 season, up from 124mn t in last month's estimates. This is 9.9pc below the previous season, which was 139.4mn t. The expected area is 41.5mn ha, up from 40.9mn ha forecast seen last month and 4.9pc higher than the previous season. According to Conab, the reductions throughout the year are consequences of the dry weather caused by climate phenomenon La Nina, especially in Mato Grosso do Sul state and in Brazil's south region — Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Parana states.
Conab expects corn production — the first, second and third crops — of 113.3mn t, down from the 114.7mn t estimate last month and 30.1pc higher than the 2020-21 season. The estimated area for total corn output is 21.6mn ha, flat from that estimated in August but 8.2pc higher than last season. According to Conab, the lack of rainfall in Goias, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais states and a pest attack in Parana state hindered these results.
For the first corn crop, production is expected at 25mn t, nearly stable from August's estimate and 1pc higher than in the 2020-21 season. Second crop production, the largest of the country, is forecast at a record-high 86.1mn t, down from the 87.4mn t estimated last month and 41.8pc higher than in the previous season.
Conab also made a reduction for cotton lint production, now estimated at 2.6mn t, from 2.7mn t — still 8.3pc higher on the year. For wheat, Conab published its eighth estimate for the 2022-23 season and forecasts production of 9.4mn t, up from the 9.2mn t estimated last month and 22pc higher than the previous season, which was 7.7mn t.
Supply and demand
Domestic consumption of soybeans in Brazil for the 2021-22 season is estimated at 48mn t, up from 47.9mn t estimated in August, and above 45.9mn t last season.
Soybean exports are expected to reach 77.2mn t, up from 75.2mn t in last month's estimate and below the 86.1mn t reached a year earlier. The imports were reduced to 500,000t, from 900,000t previously.
Domestic corn consumption is expected at 76.5mn t, slightly lower than the 77.1mn t from August's estimate and above the 72.2mn t a year earlier. Corn exports are expected to reach 37mn t, down from 37.5mn t in August's outlook. Conab's import estimates are unchanged at 1.9mn t, but still down from the 3mn t imported a year earlier.
By João Petrini
